Hello folks and Happy New Year! Its been a few since my last post. I have been very busy with family, work, and school. I have attached a link to an excellent report on Internet usage. It's big but well worth your reading time. I believe it portends some major trends developing. As an industry, we have hit 2010 with wheels spinning full speed. The competitive salvos have started with VZ firing the first shot. Behind their "gun powder" is the fundamental belief that quality matters. For them it's the network. While I think this is a critically important attribute, the overall customer experience is what's most important. That includes network, the experience at the retail and customer service touchpoints, as well as the health of a company's culture. More than just my belief, there's a ton of academic research to back it up, including case studies. As you read the report on Internet usage, think about how the emerging trends in the report link or are impacted by the components of quality. Enjoy!
http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/pdfs/2SETUP_12142009_RI.pdf
Mike
Friday, January 22, 2010
Thursday, December 10, 2009
US Consumers and there consumption of information
Following for your reading enjoyment is a report on research conducted by a major university on the information consumption characteristics of the US consumer. It's pretty interesting.
http://hmi.ucsd.edu/pdf/HMI_2009_ConsumerReport_Dec9_2009.pdf
http://hmi.ucsd.edu/pdf/HMI_2009_ConsumerReport_Dec9_2009.pdf
Saturday, December 5, 2009
An analysis of a www.techcast.org forecast on smartphones
Good afternoon. I spent the better part of the week visiting some of our operating markets. One thing that is validated everywhere I go, mobile data growth is exploding. As the devices get more powerful in terms of memory, CPU, and user interface, consumers are getting more and more comfortable going online via the cell phone. There is an interesting forecast on the wireless space, specifically the smart phone, on Dr. Halal's web site www.techcast.org. This is an interesting site that contains forecasts for a number of fields and a number of technologies. Some that are covered are wireless, the mobile Internet, transportation, and space travel.
The method used by Dr. Halal is based on data for the particular field being forecast. However, an expert panel is then used to "zero" in on an accurate forecast for the field. Questions are submitted to the expert panel based on the analysis of existing data, basically asking them to predict when the technology is most likely to go main stream.
Following is my review and thoughts on the techcast forecast for smart phones at http://www.techcast.org/BreakthroughAnalysis.aspx?ID=69.
The techcast analysis predicts the smart phone will the primary device for accessing the Internet by 2020. The smart phone could combine the computing power of PC’s the networking of the Internet, the mobility of the wireless, and the video images of television with the communications of the telephone. Access technologies are advancing very rapidly. Examples of this are the fast migration to 4G from 3G. Advances in WiFi technology and the fact that multiple access technologies are being combined into the wireless device or smart phone offer additional validation that providing a rich and user friendly connection to the Internet is a meta objective for the industry and society. Other technology points worth noting: processor chips for smart phones are now capably of 1 GHz. The processing speed for PCs is around 4 to 6 GHz. The gap is closing. GPS functionality used to require a separate device. Now this capability is contained within the smart phone as a standard feature. The touch screen, once thought to be the user interface for the PC is now main stream with the smart phone. Obviously the Apple iPhone pioneered this and helped drive wide spread adoption. Some of the roadblocks the tech cast forecast notes are: memory, processing speed, and health concerns. One critical potential obstacle I did not see in the forecast is batter power. I do believe this is a potential road block. Even with the advances in Lithium battery technology, the processing demands, storage demands, and the user always on usage behavior is pushing the limits of current battery technology. The focus areas to address this are fuel cell technology and advanced charging mechanisms. Moreover, batteries that are composed of flexible material that use more of the available smart phone real estate are being explored.
The method used by Dr. Halal is based on data for the particular field being forecast. However, an expert panel is then used to "zero" in on an accurate forecast for the field. Questions are submitted to the expert panel based on the analysis of existing data, basically asking them to predict when the technology is most likely to go main stream.
Following is my review and thoughts on the techcast forecast for smart phones at http://www.techcast.org/BreakthroughAnalysis.aspx?ID=69.
The techcast analysis predicts the smart phone will the primary device for accessing the Internet by 2020. The smart phone could combine the computing power of PC’s the networking of the Internet, the mobility of the wireless, and the video images of television with the communications of the telephone. Access technologies are advancing very rapidly. Examples of this are the fast migration to 4G from 3G. Advances in WiFi technology and the fact that multiple access technologies are being combined into the wireless device or smart phone offer additional validation that providing a rich and user friendly connection to the Internet is a meta objective for the industry and society. Other technology points worth noting: processor chips for smart phones are now capably of 1 GHz. The processing speed for PCs is around 4 to 6 GHz. The gap is closing. GPS functionality used to require a separate device. Now this capability is contained within the smart phone as a standard feature. The touch screen, once thought to be the user interface for the PC is now main stream with the smart phone. Obviously the Apple iPhone pioneered this and helped drive wide spread adoption. Some of the roadblocks the tech cast forecast notes are: memory, processing speed, and health concerns. One critical potential obstacle I did not see in the forecast is batter power. I do believe this is a potential road block. Even with the advances in Lithium battery technology, the processing demands, storage demands, and the user always on usage behavior is pushing the limits of current battery technology. The focus areas to address this are fuel cell technology and advanced charging mechanisms. Moreover, batteries that are composed of flexible material that use more of the available smart phone real estate are being explored.
Saturday, November 28, 2009
Friday, November 27, 2009
Wireless Trends
Hi all! I have not been as prolific in posting to my blog the past few weeks. I have been very busy with work (year-end stuff), school (several classes and dissertation work), and moving the family to our new home (money pit). Anyway, I’d like to share some thoughts with you on the industry.
Major trends
Major carriers continue to “tweak” their prepaid offerings. As a result of this, Leap and other prepaid focused carriers lost flow share. ARPU on the whole for the industry shows decline, although exploding demand for smart phone like devices continues to drive wireless data growth muting somewhat the voice ARPU declines. The wireline guys continue to show access line losses primarily driven by wireless substitution. The bright spot for this group is backhaul (of which they are the primary providers) and is expected to grow as more and more carriers commit to firm LTE (4G) deployment timelines. This is becoming more and more recognized as a necessity to support the exploding demand for mobile wireless data. Two other bright spots, in terms of growth, are the tower industry and data center ecosystem, both whose growth is indirectly driven by exploding mobile wireless data. As wireless carriers add a capacity to their 3G networks and begin the deployment of their 4G networks, they need to add equipment (antennas, tower top amplifiers, etc.) to the towers. Moreover, wireless data growth drives the need for routing equipment at the core and distribution layer of networks. The core routing equipment, as well as gateway equipment, is located in data centers. Data center space, power, and cooling needs are accelerating in synch with mobile wireless data adoption.
4G deployments (production and trial) are moving forward at a nice pace. VZ maintains it will have a number of large markets up and operational network year. Clearwire has launched additional markets with more planned. A significant number of carriers in the North America and abroad are conducting 4G trials, with LTE garnering most of the attention. The main driver for deployment and adoption of 4G by carriers is the explosive adoption of mobile wireless and the data usage that comes along with that. To provide a cost effective experience, carriers need faster networks that make better use of their available spectrum. 4G, and in particular, LTE, does this through a number of powerful techniques. The first is a new and improved modulation technique known as 64QAM. The second is the access technique known as OFDM. The third is MIMO, which uses multiple antennas to transmit and receive the signals. Lastly, wider spectrum bands magnify the above technological efficiencies.
The major factor that will potentially throttle deployment of LTE and other 4G technologies is building a full suite of end user devices. The device ecosystem is critical and could be a constraining force. Nevertheless, it is believed that devices will roll out in this order: single mode devices, dual chip solutions, and multi-mode devices solutions.
Additional thoughts…
Consensus is building that ATT will be losing its multi-year iPhone exclusivity in 2010, most likely mid year. Moreover, consensus is building that a CDMA version (CDMA/WCDMA) will be available next year. Some of the reasons for this belief are that the F.C.C. is looking into whether exclusive deals impede competition in the market, Apple sales soar in those markets where exclusive deals do not exist, and lastly, Apple most certainly does not want to help Android gain any better a foot hold. By the way, the Droid by all accounts is doing well. However, by all accounts and many, many reviews, the Droid is not an iPhone killer. It probably poses more of a threat to BlackBerry® and Palm Pre than it does to the iPhone.
Major trends
Major carriers continue to “tweak” their prepaid offerings. As a result of this, Leap and other prepaid focused carriers lost flow share. ARPU on the whole for the industry shows decline, although exploding demand for smart phone like devices continues to drive wireless data growth muting somewhat the voice ARPU declines. The wireline guys continue to show access line losses primarily driven by wireless substitution. The bright spot for this group is backhaul (of which they are the primary providers) and is expected to grow as more and more carriers commit to firm LTE (4G) deployment timelines. This is becoming more and more recognized as a necessity to support the exploding demand for mobile wireless data. Two other bright spots, in terms of growth, are the tower industry and data center ecosystem, both whose growth is indirectly driven by exploding mobile wireless data. As wireless carriers add a capacity to their 3G networks and begin the deployment of their 4G networks, they need to add equipment (antennas, tower top amplifiers, etc.) to the towers. Moreover, wireless data growth drives the need for routing equipment at the core and distribution layer of networks. The core routing equipment, as well as gateway equipment, is located in data centers. Data center space, power, and cooling needs are accelerating in synch with mobile wireless data adoption.
4G deployments (production and trial) are moving forward at a nice pace. VZ maintains it will have a number of large markets up and operational network year. Clearwire has launched additional markets with more planned. A significant number of carriers in the North America and abroad are conducting 4G trials, with LTE garnering most of the attention. The main driver for deployment and adoption of 4G by carriers is the explosive adoption of mobile wireless and the data usage that comes along with that. To provide a cost effective experience, carriers need faster networks that make better use of their available spectrum. 4G, and in particular, LTE, does this through a number of powerful techniques. The first is a new and improved modulation technique known as 64QAM. The second is the access technique known as OFDM. The third is MIMO, which uses multiple antennas to transmit and receive the signals. Lastly, wider spectrum bands magnify the above technological efficiencies.
The major factor that will potentially throttle deployment of LTE and other 4G technologies is building a full suite of end user devices. The device ecosystem is critical and could be a constraining force. Nevertheless, it is believed that devices will roll out in this order: single mode devices, dual chip solutions, and multi-mode devices solutions.
Additional thoughts…
Consensus is building that ATT will be losing its multi-year iPhone exclusivity in 2010, most likely mid year. Moreover, consensus is building that a CDMA version (CDMA/WCDMA) will be available next year. Some of the reasons for this belief are that the F.C.C. is looking into whether exclusive deals impede competition in the market, Apple sales soar in those markets where exclusive deals do not exist, and lastly, Apple most certainly does not want to help Android gain any better a foot hold. By the way, the Droid by all accounts is doing well. However, by all accounts and many, many reviews, the Droid is not an iPhone killer. It probably poses more of a threat to BlackBerry® and Palm Pre than it does to the iPhone.
Friday, November 20, 2009
HOLOGRAPHIC TECHNOLOGY AND CELL PHONES
Infosys predicted holographic cell phones sometime in 2010. They believe all the necessary technology is available today to make it a reality. There are several possible applications of holographic technology for cell phones. The first is for increasing the memory capacity of the cell phone. Holographic technology enables the storage of information at much greater densities than memory technologies such as flash memory. Higher density memory is important because of the increased use of multimedia applications on cell phones.
The second possible application of holographic technology is for displaying the image of the person communicating with the device. Because of how holographic technology works, the size of the projected image can be much larger than the projecting device, which in this case is the cell phone. I really don’t think we will see commercially available simple, holographic mobile devices for another 5 years, at least. One reason is the computational requirements necessary for holographic technology and the burden this would put on the mobile device, which will need most of its CPU horsepower for processing the advanced radio access protocols that are being rolled out, exceeds the current processing capabilities of even the most powerful cell phone. Moreover, holographic projection does require lasers. Cell phones have already hit the wall in terms of battery capacity. This is another roadblock that will need to be resolved before holographic technology is ready for primetime. According to Gartner research, the technology is still very much in the laboratory. When viewed from the point of view of the Gartner hype cycle, volumetric display technology is 10 plus years away, with volumetric human-machine interaction even further out. Nevertheless, the technology has promise and will eventually happen.
Friday, November 13, 2009
New cool web 2.0 tool
You don't have to use text to share your thoughts on a particular subject in the web 2.0 world. In today's busy society, sometimes recording your thoughts is the easiest way to share your thoughts and maximize your productivity while driving, riding, or walking. Follwing is a podcast using a cool web 2.0 tool called gabcast. Check it out.
Gabcast! Musings of a CTO #1
Gabcast! Musings of a CTO #1
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