An analysis of a www.techcast.org forecast on smartphones

Good afternoon. I spent the better part of the week visiting some of our operating markets. One thing that is validated everywhere I go, mobile data growth is exploding. As the devices get more powerful in terms of memory, CPU, and user interface, consumers are getting more and more comfortable going online via the cell phone. There is an interesting forecast on the wireless space, specifically the smart phone, on Dr. Halal's web site www.techcast.org. This is an interesting site that contains forecasts for a number of fields and a number of technologies. Some that are covered are wireless, the mobile Internet, transportation, and space travel.

The method used by Dr. Halal is based on data for the particular field being forecast. However, an expert panel is then used to "zero" in on an accurate forecast for the field. Questions are submitted to the expert panel based on the analysis of existing data, basically asking them to predict when the technology is most likely to go main stream.

Following is my review and thoughts on the techcast forecast for smart phones at http://www.techcast.org/BreakthroughAnalysis.aspx?ID=69.

The techcast analysis predicts the smart phone will the primary device for accessing the Internet by 2020. The smart phone could combine the computing power of PC’s the networking of the Internet, the mobility of the wireless, and the video images of television with the communications of the telephone. Access technologies are advancing very rapidly. Examples of this are the fast migration to 4G from 3G. Advances in WiFi technology and the fact that multiple access technologies are being combined into the wireless device or smart phone offer additional validation that providing a rich and user friendly connection to the Internet is a meta objective for the industry and society. Other technology points worth noting: processor chips for smart phones are now capably of 1 GHz. The processing speed for PCs is around 4 to 6 GHz. The gap is closing. GPS functionality used to require a separate device. Now this capability is contained within the smart phone as a standard feature. The touch screen, once thought to be the user interface for the PC is now main stream with the smart phone. Obviously the Apple iPhone pioneered this and helped drive wide spread adoption. Some of the roadblocks the tech cast forecast notes are: memory, processing speed, and health concerns. One critical potential obstacle I did not see in the forecast is batter power. I do believe this is a potential road block. Even with the advances in Lithium battery technology, the processing demands, storage demands, and the user always on usage behavior is pushing the limits of current battery technology. The focus areas to address this are fuel cell technology and advanced charging mechanisms. Moreover, batteries that are composed of flexible material that use more of the available smart phone real estate are being explored.